Monte Carlo simulation
World Cup 2026 Champion Odds
10,000 full-tournament simulations using Elo (FIFA rank) + Poisson goals. Each match is sampled from our prediction model, group stage and knockout included. Updated as teams are added or removed.
Mexico13.5%Tournament winner
| # | Team | Grp | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | A | 13.5 | |
| 2 | E | 8.5 | |
| 3 | A | 6.9 | |
| 4 | C | 5.7 | |
| 5 | E | 5.6 | |
| 6 | G | 5.5 | |
| 7 | F | 5.4 | |
| 8 | B | 5.2 | |
| 9 | C | 5.1 | |
| 10 | D | 4.9 | |
| 11 | H | 3.9 | |
| 12 | F | 3.3 | |
| 13 | C | 3.2 | |
| 14 | E | 3.1 | |
| 15 | B | 2.7 | |
| 16 | G | 2.7 | |
| 17 | G | 2.3 | |
| 18 | H | 2.3 | |
| 19 | D | 2.1 | |
| 20 | A | 2.0 | |
| 21 | F | 1.6 | |
| 22 | F | 1.4 | |
| 23 | D | 0.9 | |
| 24 | B | 0.6 | |
| 25 | A | 0.5 | |
| 26 | B | 0.5 | |
| 27 | E | 0.3 | |
| 28 | G | 0.2 | |
| 29 | H | 0.2 | |
| 30 | D | 0.1 | |
| 31 | H | 0.1 | |
| 32 | C | 0.0 | |
| 33 | I | 0.0 | |
| 34 | I | 0.0 | |
| 35 | I | 0.0 | |
| 36 | I | 0.0 | |
| 37 | J | 0.0 | |
| 38 | J | 0.0 | |
| 39 | J | 0.0 | |
| 40 | J | 0.0 | |
| 41 | K | 0.0 | |
| 42 | K | 0.0 | |
| 43 | K | 0.0 | |
| 44 | K | 0.0 | |
| 45 | L | 0.0 | |
| 46 | L | 0.0 | |
| 47 | L | 0.0 | |
| 48 | L | 0.0 |
Our model vs Onside Arena
Onside data → onsidearena.com/dataSide-by-side champion probability for the top 12 contenders. Our model uses Elo + Poisson over 10,000 Monte Carlo runs; Onside Arena uses logistic opponent-rating with FIFA rank, Premier League squad footprint, host advantage, and confederation strength (5,000 runs).
| # | Team | Grp | SoccerPath | Onside | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mexico | A | 13.5 | 4.1 | +9.4 |
| 2 |  Germany | E | 8.5 | 4.2 | +4.3 |
| 3 |  South Korea | A | 6.9 | 0.3 | +6.7 |
| 4 |  Brazil | C | 5.7 | 6.5 | -0.8 |
| 5 |  Ecuador | E | 5.6 | 0.5 | +5.1 |
| 6 |  Belgium | G | 5.5 | 5.3 | +0.1 |
| 7 |  Netherlands | F | 5.4 | 7.7 | -2.4 |
| 8 |  Switzerland | B | 5.2 | 1.1 | +4.1 |
| 9 |  Morocco | C | 5.1 | 3.1 | +2.0 |
| 10 |  United States | D | 4.9 | 4.3 | +0.6 |
| 11 |  Spain | H | 3.9 | 10.7 | -6.8 |
| 12 |  Japan | F | 3.3 | 0.5 | +2.8 |
Onside Arena data licensed CC-BY-4.0. Refreshed daily alongside our own simulation.
Most controversial picks
The 5 biggest disagreements between our model and Onside Arena. We tend to over-rate teams in weaker groups (Group A in particular) and under-rate elite teams in tough ones — group-stage luck isn’t fully discounted.
FranceWe under-rate
EnglandWe under-rate
ArgentinaWe under-rateMexicoWe over-rate
PortugalWe under-rateOnside data: onsidearena.com/data · CC-BY-4.0
Round of X probability
Likelihood of each team reaching each stage.
- Mexico24%
- Brazil18%
- Morocco17%
- South Korea16%
- Switzerland16%
Canada11%- United States11%
Czech Republic10%
- Mexico43%
- Germany36%
- South Korea34%
- Netherlands33%
- Ecuador30%
- Switzerland28%
- Japan26%
Ivory Coast23%
- Mexico62%
- South Korea52%
- Belgium51%
- Brazil51%
Scotland51%- Morocco51%
- Germany50%
- Ecuador46%
Dark horse spotlight
The 0.8–5% tier — too strong to call a long shot, too rare to be a realistic contender. These are the teams that could author the tournament’s most memorable story.
United StatesDark horseSpainDark horseJapanDark horseScotlandDark horseIvory CoastDark horseCanadaSleeperMost likely bracket
The single most likely outcome of every match, from Round of 32 to the Final. Winner of each matchup is shown in green.
Mexico69%Ivory Coast31%Switzerland56%Japan44%Brazil72%
Egypt28%United States56%
Uruguay44%Germany67%South Korea33%Netherlands71%Canada29%Belgium56%Morocco44%Spain73%
Australia27%Czech Republic50%Canada50%
Bosnia and Herzegovina22%Morocco78%Scotland47%Australia53%
Turkey64%Ivory Coast36%Ecuador54%Japan46%
Sweden51%Egypt49%
Iran54%Uruguay46%
Cape Verde30%South Korea70%Mexico60%Switzerland40%Brazil64%United States36%Germany56%Netherlands44%Belgium52%Spain48%Czech Republic36%Morocco64%Australia54%Turkey46%Ecuador67%Sweden33%Iran60%South Korea40%Mexico52%Brazil48%Germany56%Belgium44%Morocco70%Australia30%Ecuador55%Iran45%Mexico54%Germany46%Morocco67%Ecuador33%Mexico52%Morocco48%Methodology: 10,000 full-tournament simulations. Each match sampled from the prediction model: 3-way moneyline (Elo + draw factor) + Poisson goals. Group stage runs all 72 group matches; knockout rounds use standard FIFA bracket structure. Real finished match results are kept (deterministic), remaining matches are simulated.
Simulation completed in 8322ms · For entertainment only. Not betting advice.